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During a recession, a significant decline in economic activity spreads across the economy and can last from a few months to more than a year.Similarly, during an expansion, economic activity rises substantially, spreads across the economy, and usually lasts for several years.The date that the recession is determined to have begun is the first quarter prior to that date for which the inference from the mathematical model using all data available at that date would have been above 50%. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JHDUSRGDPBR, September 3, 2019. The next time the GDP-based recession indicator index falls below 33%, the recession is determined to be over, and the last quarter of the recession is the first quarter for which the inference from the mathematical model using all available data at that date would have been below 50%. For this time series, the recession begins the first day of the period following a peak and ends on the last day of the period of the trough.
Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/USREC, September 3, 2019.
The recession shading data that we provide initially comes from the source as a list of dates that are either an economic peak or trough.
We interpret dates into recession shading data using one of three arbitrary methods.
For daily data, the recession begins on the 15th of the month of the peak and ends on the 15th of the month of the trough. For monthly and quarterly data, the entire peak and trough periods are included in the recession shading. One version of this time series is represented using the midpoint method The second interpretation, known as the trough method, is to show a recession from the period following the peak through the trough (i.e.
This method shows the maximum number of periods as a recession for monthly and quarterly data. the peak is not included in the recession shading, but the trough is).
The most recent example of such a judgment that was less than obvious was in 1980-1982, when the Committee determined that the contraction that began in 1981 was not a continuation of the one that began in 1980, but rather a separate full recession.